Most of the brokerage houses and research firms expect utility companies to report aggregate Q3FY12 revenue growth and PAT growth of more than 20% (y-o-y), driven by capacity addition and strong merchant realisation.

Here is a sneak peek into what brokerages expect from the result of NTPC due today.

Angel Broking expects NTPC to record a 20.6% (y-o-y) increase in its top-line to Rs 16,187 crore, aided by commencement of new capacities and higher tariffs. However, OPM is expected to decline by 380bp (y-o-y) to 24.2%. Net profit is expected to decrease by 6.3% (y-o-y) to Rs 2,223 crore due to lower other income and higher interest and depreciation costs.

According to Kotak Securities, NTPC’s commercial generation in Q3FY12 is likely to remain flat on a (y-o-y) basis. During the quarter, the company commissioned 500 MW and 660 MW each at Jhajjar and Sipat.

IDBI Capital expects NTPC to report revenue growth of 18% (y-o-y). However, PAT is expected to decline by 7% (y-o-y) due to expected increase in fuel cost. The key things to watch out are capacity commissioning schedule.

According to Emkay, NTPC’s generation will increase by 7% (y-o-y). Emkay said in its report, “Higher generation and PLFs indicate improvement in backing down by states. We expect better PAF to offset revenue loss due to decline in fuel cost (better domestic fuel availability). Consequently realisations are likely to improve by ~20% (y-o-y). PAT is likely to remain flat (y-o-y) at Rs 22.6 bn".

Edelweiss expects that the revenue growth of NTPC is likely to be muted due to lack of capacity addition. Lower plant load factors (PLFs), as reported during October, could hurt earnings due to drop in efficiency gains. Delayed payments from SEBs could further hurt profitability.

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal (MOSL) said in its report, “We expect NTPC to post 3QFY12 revenue to grow by 24% (y-o-y), and PAT to be up by 11% (y-o-y)".