Appreciating 'long' term
In school days, I read a story in which the legendary Birbal makes a long line short by drawing a longer one beside it. No one practices the Birbal trick better than the smart of the Street.
First, the tax guy said anything more than one year is long term. Fund managers said it can be anywhere between three and five years. Then, I heard a financial advisor saying if you catch the wrong end of the cycle, you may have to wait longer.
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Finally, some old brokers told me long term is really long, like between your marriage and your daughter's. I am not venturing into derivatives, where for some reason 'long' means buy.
The less I could understand 'long term', the more I started believing in it. It grew on me in its different avatars, even as I continued my search for that elusive 'real' long.
The search ended in an anti-climax. Bulls are scarce these days, but not all are dead. One sat on the dais at a seminar. "I don't know what will happen tomorrow. People often ask me if we have hit a bottom. But you will know the bottom only a few days later. By then, the market would have run up." But, one thing is sure, he thundered. "In the long term, given the strong fundamentals of the India story, equities will only do well."
Let me end this here and now, I thought. "Sir, you have been at your confusing best. If you do not know what will happen tomorrow, how are you sure about the long term? What is long term, according to you? Like bottoms and tops, will you decide 'long term' also after it's gone?"
The bull came back. Riding on him was the Oracle of Omaha himself, "Long term is for life. The greatest investor of our times, Warren Buffett, says he buys stocks for his lifetime."
Now, this was going nowhere. Time for a quick portfolio check: The moderator was glaring; the lunch was beckoning; the god of investing
had been invoked and I risked blasphemy. I decided to square off my positions and ran for the starters.
Over lasagna, I wondered if the investor had any company in this 'long' journey. The exchange wants margins upfront. The broker/agent takes his fees by the end of the day. The government takes its cut by March 31. Only the investor has to weather through the seasons, tsunamis and stay for eternity.
Why is everyone advising him long term? One, it is good for the investor; two, it suits the advisor.
I am inclined to choose the latter. If you made your money, the advisor is safe. If not, he always has Birbal.
I'll share with you the trade I had in mind before letting the bull go. It may help. Next time, an equity priest comes asking you to worship the long-term god, ask him one simple question: "Can I pay your brokerage at the end of that long term?"
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Sensex
| Company | Price | Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|
| GAIL (India) | 336.30 | 3.37 |
| Tata Steel | 408.25 | 2.43 |
| DLF | 188.45 | 1.89 |
| St Bk of India | 2,005.00 | 1.74 |
| Larsen & Toubro | 1,186.40 | 1.54 |

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